Win rate

Win rate is arithmetic, not achievement. FXStreet's learning center states it plainly: number of profitable trades divided by total trades, times 100. It answers exactly one question, *how often was I right*, and it carries zero information about how much you made when you were right or lost when you were wrong. Run the numbers behind the definition and the point becomes hard to argue with. A 90% win rate with 0.5R winners and 5R losers: (0.9 x 0.5R) - (0.1 x 5R) = 0.45R - 0.5R = **-0.05R per trade**. Right nine times out of ten, and the expectancy is still negative. A 30% win rate with 5R winners and 1R losers: (0.3 x 5R) - (0.7 x 1R) = 1.5R - 0.7R = **+0.8R per trade**. Wrong seven times out of ten, and the expectancy is positive. ### The break-even line For any reward-to-risk ratio, the win rate you need just to break even is 1 divided by (1 + reward). At 1:1 you need better than 50%. At 2:1, better than 33.3%. At 3:1, better than 25%. At 5:1, better than 16.7%. FXStreet makes the same point from the other direction: on a random entry with no edge, a coin-toss approach, the win rate simply tracks whatever risk-to-reward ratio you chose. A win rate quoted on its own is a number stripped of the only context that gives it meaning. ### The mistake that hides inside a good-looking win rate The easiest way to raise a win rate is to stop taking losses. Widen the stop. Remove the stop. Average down and wait. The red trade never closes, so it never enters the count, and the win rate climbs while the equity sinks. This is why a beautiful win rate and a shrinking account live together so comfortably. In a funded account that habit is not merely expensive, it is disqualifying. FTMO's published trading objectives measure the loss limits on **equity**, which includes the profit and loss of open positions. Refusing to close a loser does not hide it from the rule. It just hides it from you. ### Where win rate does earn its keep It does not set your profitability. It sets your *path*. A 30% win rate system hands you long losing streaks, and streaks are what make people abandon a strategy before it has had the trade count to show what it is. So pick a win rate you can psychologically sit through, then make the reward-to-risk pay for it. Stop chasing win rate. Chase expectancy.